Insights
Market reports, forecast data, industry insights, and more from iEmergent.
iEmergent has long maintained that mortgage lenders can grow volume despite the challenging trifecta of high interest rates, high home prices, and low inventory—if they use data to look in the right places. To prove our point, we’ve done a deep dive into the LA market using our Mortgage MarketSmart mortgage market intelligence platform to reveal where troves of opportunity are hiding in plain sight today and how the LA market will evolve through 2025.
Using the LA market as an example, this blog will provide mortgage lenders with an overview of how iEmergent’s tools can help pinpoint opportunities to expand market share, grow referral networks, recruit sales talent, and build diverse lending strategies.
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There's more data where this came from. See our analysis of the Atlanta MSA.
To understand the future of any mortgage market, iEmergent has developed mortgage opportunity forecast reports, which are five-year projections of purchase loan activity by census tract (CT). These forecasts are exceedingly predictive of future market conditions and exceed forward-looking analytics accuracy standards.
Looking at the 2023 mortgage opportunity forecast for LA shows us that 71,189 purchase mortgage loans worth a collective $38 billion will be originated for homes in the area this year. The average loan size will be $706,242—a figure notably different from sales price.
Additionally, our rich data insights are overlaid on interactive maps that enable lenders to visually explore market opportunities and click on census tracts (CT) to drill down for detailed information.
Below is a Mortgage MarketSmart data visualization of the forecasted 2023 purchase loan by CT in the LA market.
Access to local market data is clutch for lenders. That’s because there is no uniform U.S. mortgage market, and relying on national forecasts does nothing for lenders as they try to grow in individual markets. There are 84,414 CTs in the U.S.—each one unique. By forecasting at this granular level, we can quickly and easily show lenders hidden pockets of opportunity in any market within the U.S.
In addition to market-level opportunity forecasts, the forward-looking data can be broken down even further. Mortgage MarketSmart users can see how many loans will occur this year (or any of the next five years) in each market broken down by:
iEmergent’s forecast reveals something interesting about the LA mortgage market that is true in virtually every major metroplex in the country: the sector of the market that will experience the most significant growth over the next five years is diverse borrowers. Specifically, Hispanic, Asian, and Black homebuyers will account for 35% of the total purchase activity over the next five years—close to $3.5 trillion—yet this is a sector where most lenders are under-indexed.
The entire LA market—and the U.S. as a whole—saw a COVID boom and bust. But over the next few years, Asian, Hispanic, and Black loans and dollars are expected to climb close to 2021 numbers.
While diverse markets are forecasted to rebound and even exceed their 2021 numbers, the white borrower opportunity is forecasted to stay well below 2021 dollars.
And the overall market in LA is expected to stay even flatter in terms of dollars. The growth opportunity that does exist? It exists in diverse markets.
Once you understand where the hotspots of purchase loan activity are in your geography, Mortgage MarketSmart makes it easy to capture those loans by:
You can zoom into a target area and view current MLS listings, the listing agent, and details about the property for sale.
You can also work toward building relationships in your communities by finding nearby centers of influence (COI), which can serve as gateways to get closer to and engage with borrowers. Centers of influence in Mortgage MarketSmart include places of worship, libraries, schools, housing nonprofits, veterans organizations, and more. These COIs can be effective referral sources for lenders who engage with them by sponsoring local events or hosting homebuyer education seminars.
An LO’s referral network is one of their most valuable resources. Using Mortgage MarketSmart, you can identify prospective referral sources—like real estate agents—or find out which MLOs are performing in a market for specific borrower groups or loan types.
Here, we see the top MLOs by loan dollars in the LA market for low- to moderate-income (LMI) loans.
To see names and NMLS IDs, subscribe to Mortgage MarketSmart.
The data shows that homebuyer growth in 2023 and for years to come will be concentrated in diverse markets. When you have this type of data for your market, you can make strategic decisions and find areas for growth in your communities.
To grow in today’s market, it’s not necessary to invest in acquisitions or expand into new geographies: there are hidden pockets of opportunity within every lender’s existing footprint. When you understand where these borrowers are and how to engage with them, you can achieve significant growth in today’s challenging environment.
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All maps and data in this email are from iEmergent’s proprietary forecasts and Mortgage MarketSmart’s suite of market intelligence tools.
Generally accepted minimum accuracy standards for predictive analytics: 70%.