Atlanta Mortgage Market to See Growth in Diverse Homeownership

Posted By Megan Horn on Sep 19, 2023
iEmergent Blog - ATL Market Analysis

It’s been a tough year for many lenders. 

Data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) indicates lenders lost an average $534 (18 basis points) on each loan they originated in Q2 2023. Those losses can be attributed to many factors, and the current market conditions of high interest rates, low inventory, and rising home prices certainly don’t help. Read our latest forecast update for more details on our outlook.

Even so, iEmergent maintains that lenders can make money on loans in a challenging market or otherwise—if they’re using the right kind of data to find pockets of opportunity. To show how, we’ve taken a deep dive into the Atlanta market using our Mortgage MarketSmart mortgage market intelligence platform to reveal where those opportunities are now … and where they’ll be evolving through 2025. 

It’s our hope that these examples will show lenders the value of using iEmergent’s tools in their local market to help pinpoint opportunities to expand market share, grow referral networks, recruit sales talent, and build diverse lending strategies.

Want more data? Check out our market snapshot of Los Angeles.

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Atlanta Will Be a $31 Billion Purchase Mortgage Loan Market in 2023

To understand the future of any mortgage market, iEmergent has developed mortgage opportunity forecast reports, which are five-year projections of purchase loan activity by census tract (CT). These forecasts are exceedingly predictive of future market conditions. 

Looking at the 2023 mortgage opportunity forecast for Atlanta shows us that 78,811 purchase mortgage loans worth a collective $31 billion will be originated for homes in the area this year. The average loan size will be $389,255.

iEmergent ATL 2023 Forecast Overview

Here’s the market broken down at a census tract level to show where dollar opportunity is in 2023.

ATL 2023 Forecast Purchase

How Fast Will Atlanta’s Lending Market Grow in 2023?

Mortgage Velocity Index (MVI) compares a market’s rate of growth in loans over the next five years as compared to the growth rate of the overall U.S. market. For 2023, Atlanta’s MVI is .98, meaning it is growing just slightly under the rate of the whole U.S. market, which is set at 1. 

For comparison, here are a few other large markets and their 2023 MVI:

iEmergent ATL 2023 Mortgage Velocity MVI

Revealing Local Opportunities

Additionally, our rich data insights are overlaid on interactive maps that enable lenders to visually explore market opportunities and click on their neighborhoods to drill down for detailed information.

Access to local market data is important for lenders. That’s because there is no uniform U.S. mortgage market, and relying on national forecasts does nothing for lenders as they try to grow in individual markets. There are 84,414 census tracts—each one unique. By forecasting at the CT level, we can quickly and easily show lenders hidden pockets of opportunity in any market within the U.S. 

In addition to market-level opportunity forecasts, the forward-looking data can be broken down even further. Mortgage MarketSmart users can see how many loans will occur this year (or any of the next three years) in each market broken down by:

  • Borrower race/ethnicity
  • Borrower income
  • Loan type
  • Loan size
  • And more

Borrower Segment Distribution

One of the most interesting findings for the Atlanta market, which we’ve been talking about for years, is the distribution of borrower segments throughout the market. There are pockets throughout the MSA of Black/African-American, Asian, and Hispanic borrowers. In each map below, you can see these pockets. 

These maps show loan volume for 2023 from the latest iEmergent forecast. The darker the color, the higher the forecasted loan volume for each census tract.

In Atlanta, Black, Asian, and Hispanic homebuyers will account for nearly 43% of the total purchase activity over the next three years—yet this is a sector where most lenders are under-indexed, meaning not performing up to the opportunities available.

Black Households

2023 Black Purchase Loans ATL

Asian Households

2023 Asian Purchase Loans ATL

Hispanic Households

2023 Hispanic Purchase Loans ATL

If you compare these segmented maps to the overall market map above, it’s easy to see why different neighborhoods warrant different marketing strategies. Lenders in Atlanta—and any market throughout the U.S.—need to have this drilled down, forward-looking information to craft effective marketing strategies.

Majority Minority Census Tract (MMCT) Growth

A census tract is considered a “Majority Minority Census Tract” (MMCT) if the population of the relevant minority group (Black/Hispanic or All Minority) is greater than 50% of the total tract population. 

Here’s a visualization of the census tracts in the Atlanta market that are majority minority.

Majority Minority Census Tract (MMCT) in Atlanta

The Atlanta market is one of the most stark examples of minority homebuyer concentration in the U.S.  And the market’s forecasted growth of loan dollars to minority borrowers in these MMCTs is expected to outpace overall market growth in 2023 through 2025. 

Majority minority census tracts are forecasted to experience growth in loans of each racial borrower segment:

iEmergent ATL MMCT Growth

These percentages display the average growth of MMCTs overall within the Atlanta market. The real beauty is that we can tell you which census tracts are growing—and growing fastest—in these segments.
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Strategies for Capturing More Mortgage Loans

Once you understand where the hotspots of purchase loan activity are in your geography, Mortgage MarketSmart makes it easy to capture those loans by:

  • Identifying strategic real estate partners
  • Pinpointing and recruiting top MLOs
  • Geotargeting to significantly increase the number of borrowers who engage with your originators
  • Establishing and growing a presence in the communities where the most loans will occur

The Mortgage Market Lesson from Atlanta

Census tract level forecast data gives lenders a huge competitive advantage. The data shows that homebuyer growth in 2023 and for years to come will be in diverse markets. When you have this type of data for your market, you can make strategic decisions and find areas for growth in your communities. 

Learn how First Commonwealth used iEmergent’s borrower segment data to build a Special Purpose Credit Program (SPCP) to reach historically underserved communities. 

To grow in today’s market, it’s not necessary to invest in acquisitions or expanding into new geographies; there are hidden pockets of opportunity within every lender’s existing footprint. When you understand where these borrowers are and how to engage with them, you can achieve significant growth in today’s challenging environment.

Request a demo to see insights from your mortgage market.
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All maps and data in this email are from iEmergent’s proprietary forecasts and Mortgage MarketSmart’s suite of market intelligence tools.

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