WHAT'S INSIDE OUR FORECASTS?

iEmergent’s forecasts quantify the mortgage opportunity and identify market behavior metrics for all geographic markets and many market segments nationwide. Every 5-year forecast projects the mortgage loans, mortgage dollar volume, and loan sizes for each year.  Other metrics describe other important market behavior, such as speed of growth and purchase mortgage density, as well as data that describes the different competitive landscapes across markets.

Geography

iEmergent produces forecasts that span all geographic levels—from the entire U.S. down to neighborhoods and specific zones composed of groups of census tracts.  Coverage is complete, which means that there are not any metropolitan or rural areas that are missed.

Market Segments

The forecasts also cover various market segments, based on loan type, loan sizes, borrower demographics, loan purpose, and other custom groupings. Specific forecasts include:

  • Basic Forecast Segments:  All Purchase Loans, Owner-Occupied Purchase Loans, Non-Owner-Occupied Purchase Loans, Refinance Ranges
  • Loan Type Segments: Federal Housing Agency (FHA) Purchase Loans, Veterans Administration (VA) Purchase Loans, Farm Services Agency (FSA) Loans, Conventional Loans
  • JUMBO (Non-Conforming) and Conforming Purchase Loans
  • CRA-Eligible Purchase and Refinance Loans
  • Loan Size Segments – Low Loan Size Purchase Loans, Moderate Loan Size Purchase Loans, Middle Loan Size Purchase Loans, Upper Loan Size Purchase Loans, High Loan Size Purchase Loans
  • First Time Home Buyer Purchase Loans
  • Borrower Race/Ethnicity Segments: Black/African American Borrower Purchase Loans, Hispanic Borrower Purchase Loans, Asian Borrower Purchase Loans, White Borrower Purchase Loans, Pacific Islander-Native Hawaiian-Native Alaskan-Native American Borrower Purchase Loans
  • FFIEC-Designated Borrower Income Segments – Low Income (LI) Borrower Purchase Loans, Moderate Income (MI) Borrower Purchase Loans, Low to Moderate Income (LMI) Borrower Purchase Loans, Middle Income (MI) Borrower Purchase Loans, Upper Income (UI) Borrower Purchase Loans
  • Borrower Income Segments – Low Income Range Borrower Purchase Loans, Moderate Income Range Borrower Purchase Loans, Middle Income Range Borrower Purchase Loans, Upper Income Range Borrower Purchase Loans, High Income Range Borrower Purchase Loans
  • New Home Sales Forecast
  • High Net Worth Borrower Purchase Forecast
  • Custom Forecasts

Numbers and Metrics

iEmergent’s forecasts, in combination with other household and economic demographics, produce a wide range of relevant market and market segment metrics that are used by lenders to make market comparisons and assign market priorities. Some of these metrics include:

  • Five-Year Purchase Mortgage Loan and Mortgage Dollar Projections – All forecasts include projections of purchase mortgage loans and purchase mortgage dollars for five years.
  • Purchase Average Loan Size (PALS) – The Purchase Average Loan Size is calculated for each forecasted year. Although related to the average home prices in a market, PALS are preferable to Home Price Indexes because they quantify the opportunity for lenders, as opposed to looking at all real estate transactions including cash.
  • Mortgage Generation Rates (MGR) – The rate at which markets generate mortgages. Together, the Purchase Mortgage Generation Rate (PMGR) and the Refinance Mortgage Generation Rate (RMGR) equal the unique Mortgage Generation Rate of a market.
  • Purchase Mortgage Density of Loans (PMD - Loans) – The density per homeowners (1,000 homeowners) of loans generated in a market each year. This metric allows for easy comparison between geographies of different sizes.
  • Purchase Mortgage Density of Dollars (PMD - Dollars) – The density per homeowners (per 1,000 homeowners) of dollars generated in a market each year. This metric allows for easy comparison between geographies of different sizes.
  • Mortgage Velocity Index (MVI) – The rate of growth of mortgage loans in a market over the next five years. The MVI is used to easily understand how quickly one market is growing in loan units compared to the U.S.
  • Mortgage Opportunity Index (MOI) – The rate of growth of mortgage dollars in a market over the next five years. The MOI is used to easily understand how quickly one market is growing in loan dollars compared to the U.S.
  • Competition Ratios – Metrics that compare the competitive landscape in markets:
    • Loan-to-Lender Ratio: This most basic competitive metric quantifies the number of loans per lender in each geography (tract, county, CBSA, etc.).
    • Lender Concentration Score: This metric clarifies how much a market is controlled by the top lenders, specifically what % share of the market is controlled by the Top 5 lenders.
    • Lender Fragmentation Score: Defines the % share a lender would need in order to become a Top 5 lender in a market.
  • Sales Force Coverage Ratios – Ratio of the size of a sales force to the lending opportunity in a market, either in mortgage units or mortgage dollars.
  • Market Priority Score – The score assigned to a market by weighting a variety of market metrics. The Market Priority Score is often utilized when comparing and ranking markets to determine priorities for expansion and resources.
  • Refinance Relationship Ratios (RRI) – Unique market indicators that help lenders anticipate refinance levels.
  • New Construction Demand Ratios (NCR) – Growth ratios that assess future new construction lending potential.

Historical Data

iEmergent gets actual mortgage data annually from the FFIEC through the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA), which requires financial institutions to maintain and annually disclose data about home purchases, home purchase pre-approvals, home improvement, and refinance applications involving 1 to 4 unit and multifamily residential homes. Thus, nearly every loan and loan application made in the U.S. is recorded in this database. iEmergent provides historical data from HMDA dating back to 2001.

iEmergent's standard historical reports include HMDA unit and dollar totals for all purchase and refinance loans, as well as the totals for specific segments, including loan type segments, borrower race/ethnicity segments, loan size segments, and income group segments.

Other Demographic and Economic Data

Behind our forecasts are a variety of data, including household and economic demographic data like household and housing data from the Census and American Community Survey and employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. At a basic level, iEmergent provides general household and homeowner counts and growth rates.