Market reports, forecast data, industry insights, and more from iEmergent.
Orlando is unique in many ways, starting with its airport designation code MCO. The initials come from its previous incarnation as the McCoy Air Force Base, which operated from 1950-1975. Today, the Orlando International Airport is very modern, and it’s the seventh busiest airport in the United States.
The housing market is pretty busy too. Homes for sale in Orlando receive an average of three offers and sell in just 19 days (and, yes, these are stats from 2023). According to Redfin, the median sales price in August 2023 was $365K, up 2.0% since last year. The median sale price per square foot in Orlando is $232, up 1.8% since last year.
This all sounds like good news, but if you’re in Orlando and business seems slow you may be wondering where the pockets of opportunity are. What we can safely say is that it will pay to take a closer look. We’ve found through years of forecasting that there is no uniform U.S. mortgage market, and relying on national forecasts does nothing for lenders as they try to grow in individual markets.
There are 84,414 census tracts (CTs) in the U.S. and each one is unique. By forecasting at the census level, we can quickly and easily reveal hidden pockets of opportunity in any market across the nation — including yours.
Since 2010, iEmergent’s forecast has outperformed most predictive analytics from other industries, maintaining an accuracy rate of over 90%, and is backed by a money-back accuracy guarantee*. You can read more about the forecast here.
Here’s our census tract-level forecast data visualizing 2023 purchase dollars in the Orlando, FL, MSA.
Below, we can see loans, dollars, and the average loan size in Orlando in 2023.
Now let’s look at the same data for 2024.
From 2023 to 2024, there will be a slight increase in purchase units, purchase volume, and average loan size in Orlando.
However, iEmergent’s Mortgage Velocity Index (MVI) for Orlando for the 5-year period starting in 2024 is -.22, which means the market is forecasted to shrink over the next five years.
An MVI of 1 means a market is growing on pace with the average national market growth. To help put this into context, the chart below shows the 2024 MVI of some large U.S. markets.
Growth forecasts like these enable lenders to set sales goals that are both challenging and realistic for MLOs, while also cluing them in to the type of volume to expect. For example, just as setting a 10% growth goal in a mortgage market growing at 1% is a recipe for disappointment, setting a 5% growth goal in a market growing at 10% may give you an artificial sense of success while competitors feast on your missed opportunities.
Lenders also need to dive deeper into specific borrower segments, loan types, census tracts, and more. In a market like Orlando, which is forecasted to remain flat for the next year, lenders need to reach prospective borrowers first. Mortgage MarketSmart enables you to pinpoint where that opportunity will be and what it will look like by zooming in on the neighborhood level.
Overall, the racial homeownership gap in Orlando is less pronounced than many other markets we analyze, however, the racial homeownership gaps are still pronounced.
First, we can look at distribution. In some markets, like Atlanta, the market is geographically split by race/ethnicity in a very obvious way. However, in Orlando, mortgages to different borrower segments are relatively evenly spread and align with the overall market volume.
While on the surface, both loan volume and units seem evenly distributed across races, a deeper look at the data reveals that things aren’t as equitable as they first appear.
Comparing Orlando’s racial composition to the racial composition of the city’s mortgage borrowers shows that white and Asian borrowers are financing homes at higher rates than Black and Hispanic borrowers.
This discrepancy is also evident in homeownership rates (2022 is the latest year for this metric):
When lenders are looking for opportunities in Orlando, serving diverse markets is a solid growth strategy for 2024 and 2025.
Mortgage MarketSmart can show you exactly where these borrowers are.
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In addition to borrower demographics like race/ethnicity, income, age, and more, we can also break down a market by loan type. In Orlando, the most interesting opportunity is in FHA and VA lending.
These percentages are much higher than in large markets like Los Angeles, New York, and Chicago as well as in markets similar in size to Orlando like Nashville and Austin.
For 2024, there are distinct pockets of opportunity for FHA loans.
2024 FHA Loans by Census Tract
2024 VA Loans by Census Tract
Imagine having this data (and more!) for your markets. What kind of strategies could you plan? How would your 2024 look different?
Forward-looking data — combined with historic, current data, and innovative analysis tools — sets lenders apart. If you want to grow in 2024 (or hit your 2023 goals in the last couple of months), let’s talk.
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All maps and data in this email are from iEmergent’s proprietary forecasts and Mortgage MarketSmart’s suite of market intelligence tools.
Generally accepted minimum accuracy standards for predictive analytics: 70%.