Insights
Market reports, forecast data, industry insights, and more from iEmergent.
Recent Census Bureau data shows Idaho leading the nation in new home construction, raising an important question for lenders: what does this trend mean for mortgage origination? Known for producing roughly a third of the nation’s potatoes and home to Hells Canyon—the deepest river gorge in North America—Idaho is also emerging as one of the most dynamic housing markets in the country.
While our monthly market blogs typically analyze a single metropolitan statistical area (MSA) or core-based statistical area (CBSA), Idaho’s unique combination of statewide growth and a widely dispersed population calls for a broader lens. In this case, we’re examining the entire state.
Subscribe for in-depth data:
Home to just over 2 million people across roughly 750,000 households, Idaho is the nation’s second fastest-growing state, trailing only South Carolina, with 1.4% growth between July 2024 and July 2025.
That growth is reflected in Idaho’s housing and labor markets. In 2025, Idaho recorded $4.7 trillion in residential new construction activity, helping elevate construction to the state’s third-largest employment sector.
At 72.4%, Idaho’s homeownership rate is also well above the nationwide norm of 65%. Median household income is $77,800, and 21.1% of the population identifies as minority—factors that shape both housing demand and lending opportunity.
While these demographics tell part of the story, Idaho’s growth is playing out across a mix of established metros and smaller, fast-developing communities—creating a more distributed pattern of housing demand than many other high-growth states.
In Idaho, our 2026 projections call for 51,006 combined purchase and refinance loans, amounting to $18.2 billion in total volume with an average loan size of $356,428.
By visualizing this forecast by census tract, you can see that more loans are expected to originate near major cities, with the highest concentration of loans near the state capital of Boise.
From 2023 to 2027, total dollar volume for purchase and refinance originations in Idaho are forecast to grow from $10.9 billion to $18.4 billion, a 69.1% increase. The increase will come from an estimated 18,500 more loans and a $30,000 increase in average loan size over that time frame.
These uptrends correlate with the increase in new-build activity, both of which can be attributed to net migration into the state amid both job growth and wage growth.
Here’s a look at Idaho’s mortgage lending growth by year:
Considering the big jump from 2025 to 2026, this year presents a major opportunity for lenders already active in Idaho to grow their new construction home financing business and help more Idahoans become homeowners. It also presents a compelling entry point for lenders not yet active in the state, as Idaho has roughly one-third the typical number of active lenders compared to other states, signaling untapped competitive space.
After 2027, growth is expected to slow, so now is the time. iEmergent’s Mortgage Velocity Index (MVI) compares a market’s rate of growth in purchase loans over the next five years to the growth rate of the overall U.S. market. An MVI of 1 means a market is growing on pace with national market growth, and Idaho has a 0.83 MVI.
In Idaho, 21.1% of the population (and 16.0% of households) are from racial/ethnic minority groups. Homeownership gaps for these groups are smaller than in many other markets we analyze, with the non-Hispanic white homeownership rate (74.6%) just 13.9 percentage points higher than that of minority households (60.7%).
The minority population in Idaho is concentrated near metro areas like Boise, Idaho Falls, and Pocatello, which could be used as a case for a place-based custom credit program.
According to the National Association of Realtors, Idaho is one of five states with the largest affordability gaps, meaning there is a significant mismatch between what households at various income levels can afford and the share of homes currently available at those price points. With new inventory coming into the market, lenders could have an opportunity to grow originations while helping low- and moderate-income (LMI) borrowers become homeowners.
Lending to LMI borrowers is forecast to account for about 13% of loan dollars and 21% of loan count in 2026. These loans will be spread throughout the market in a similar pattern to all loan volume:
To capture this opportunity, lenders can seek out or develop down payment assistance and other lending products and programs that serve these borrowers.
With a lot of new construction and steady population growth, Idaho is a growth center for 2026. However, each market in the state is unique and requires localized approaches. iEmergent’s data and tools help lenders drill in on individual markets to:
With iEmergent’s data and tools, you can drill in to see where the real, local opportunities lie—and act on them first. Want to explore what this looks like in your market? Schedule a demo today.