Data Reveals Surprising Diverse-market Growth in Dallas-Fort Worth

Posted By Megan Horn on Oct 04, 2023

iEmergent Blog - DFW Market Analysis

It would seem everything is bigger in the Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) region, including purchase mortgage opportunities for lenders.   

This month, we’ve homed in on the DFW market using our Mortgage MarketSmart mortgage market intelligence and forecasting platform to reveal where lending opportunities are hiding “in plain sight” and how they’ll shift in the coming years. 

(Spoiler alert, the greatest increase in purchase demand will come from Asian homebuyers.)

This deep dive into the DFW market provides a sneak peek into how iEmergent can help lenders expand market share, grow referral networks, recruit sales talent, and build diverse lending strategies.

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DFW Will Be a $37.2 Billion Purchase Mortgage Loan Market in 2023

To understand the future of any mortgage market, iEmergent has developed mortgage opportunity forecast reports, which are five-year projections of purchase loan activity by census tract (CT). These forecasts are exceedingly predictive of future market conditions and exceed forward-looking analytics accuracy standards.

Looking at the 2023 mortgage opportunity forecast for DFW shows that 90,266 purchase mortgage loans worth a collective $37.2 billion will be originated this year. The average loan size will be $412,708.

iEmergent DFW 2023 Forecast Market

How Fast Will DFW’s Lending Market Grow in 2023?

iEmergent’s Mortgage Velocity Index (MVI) compares a market’s loan growth rate over the next five years to that of the overall U.S. market. For 2023, DFW’s MVI is 2.91, meaning it is growing at a much faster rate than the U.S. market as a whole, which is set at 1. 

For comparison, here are a few other large markets and their 2023 MVI:

iEmergent DFW 2023 Forecast MVI

Drilling Into Lending Opportunities in DFW

Because there is no uniform U.S. mortgage market, national forecasts are not representative of local markets. That’s why access to local market data is so important for lenders. 

There are 84,414 CTs — each one unique. By forecasting at the CT level, Mortgage MarketSmart can quickly and easily show lenders hidden pockets of opportunity in any market within the U.S. 

In addition to market-level opportunity forecasts, Mortgage MarketSmart’s forward-looking data can be broken down even further.  Users can see how many loans will occur this year (or any of the next five years) in each market broken down by:

  • Borrower race/ethnicity
  • Borrower income
  • Loan type
  • Loan size
  • Purchase vs. refi
  • Owner- or non-owner-occupied
  • And more (see section below)
Below is a Mortgage MarketSmart data visualization of forecasted 2023 purchase loan volume by CT in the DFW market.
DFW Total Purchase Dollars 2023

A Closer Look at Minority Market Growth in DFW

iEmergent is especially interested in helping lenders grow by pursuing opportunities to serve minority homebuyers. While each market looks different, homebuyers of color are a rapidly growing population that lenders can reach with the right data. 

Here’s our findings on minority homebuyer trends over the next few years.

Hispanic Homebuyers Are a Growing Market Segment 

Hispanic lending opportunities are expected to continue to grow in the DFW market. iEmergent has forecasted purchase volume of $4.5 billion in 2023, $4.8 billion in 2024, and $5.2 billion in 2025.

iEmergent DFW Hispanic Opp

And here's how that looks geographically in the market for 2023:

DFW Hispanic Purchase Dollars 2023
Projected DFW Hispanic Homebuyer Purchase Volume 2023

Black Homebuyer Opportunity Will Hold Steady in the Coming Years

Lending opportunities with Black homebuyers in DFW are expected to stay relatively steady over the next few years. iEmergent forecasts the Black borrower market in 2023 at $3.5 billion; 2024 at $3.6 billion; and 2025 at $3.9 billion.

iEmergent DFW Black Opp

As we often see, these loans are concentrated in particular neighborhoods around the metropolitan statistical area (MSA).

DFW Black Purchase Dollars 2023
Projected DFW Black Homebuyer Purchase Volume 2023

Asian Homebuyers Present the Largest Opportunity for Growth

While most of the minority homebuyer outreach in Texas and other Southern border states is targeted to Hispanic borrowers, the data reveals that Asian homebuyers present the greatest opportunity for growth in DFW.

This illustrates why it’s so important to make data-informed lending strategies. Assumptions and preconceived notions can lead to ineffective strategies and missed opportunities. 

In DFW, purchase mortgage loans made to Asian borrowers skyrocketed during the COVID boom; the graph below illustrates how volume was steady from 2018 to 2020, then exploded in 2021. 

While loans to Asian homebuyers declined after the post-COVID-boom, as they did across the entire market, they are forecasted to reach COVID boom-levels by 2025.

iEmergent DFW Asian Opp

In addition to volume growth, the share of loans to Asian borrowers has increased drastically over the past eight years. While Asian borrowers accounted for just over 10% of DFW’s purchase market share in 2019, they are expected to surpass 19% of total market share in 2025. 

A jump like this is much higher than the 1-2% increases we’re seeing at the national level and in many markets.

iEmergent DFW Asian Loan Share

Mortgage Market Lessons We See for DFW

Asian homebuyer opportunity is highly concentrated in select DFW census tracts. DFW lenders are missing out if they do not have strategies to reach Asian homebuyers in the deep purple regions of the map below.

DFW Asian Purchase Dollars 2023
DFW Asian Homebuyer Purchase Volume 2023

As an example, let’s look at loans for a hypothetical lender in DFW. In Mortgage MarketSmart, we overlaid year-to-date loans with Asian homebuyer opportunities and quickly see that this lender is likely missing out lots of loans based on fewer units in higher-opportunity census tracts.

DFW Example Lender Vs Asian Opp 2023

Looking Ahead for 2024 and Beyond

Mortgage MarketSmart tells lenders where the loans are now and where they will be five years in the future. If you’d like to see how we can give you insight into who will finance loans, ideal referral partners, and the best way to market loans, schedule a demo today.
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All maps and data in this email are from iEmergent’s proprietary forecasts and Mortgage MarketSmart’s suite of market intelligence tools.

Generally accepted minimum accuracy standards for predictive analytics: 70%.

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