The 2024 Memphis Mortgage Growth Forecast

Posted By Megan Horn on Apr 03, 2024

Memphis growth, led by diverse households, outpaces the national average

iEmergent Blog - Memphis Market Analysis

A Look Ahead at Memphis Lending

We’re heading to Tennessee for the Great River MBA’s annual conference this month. Built on the Chickasaw Bluffs on the east bank of the Mississippi, Memphis is home to outstanding barbecue, the legendary Sun Studio, and plenty of market opportunity for mortgage lenders. 

What’s in store for the City of the Blues in 2024? With above-average growth expected in the Memphis market, it’s important to know where the opportunities are. Let’s take a look. 

The Memphis, TN-MS-AR core-based statistical area (CBSA), hereafter referred to as the Memphis market, includes 510,449 households and has a homeownership rate of 60.7%. With nearly four billion purchase dollars in the market, opportunity abounds.
Memphis 2024 Mortgage Opportunity Forecast

Capitalizing on that opportunity is all about understanding its location. Here’s our census tract-level forecast data for 2024 purchase dollars in the Memphis market visualized using Mortgage MarketSmart:

Memphis Purchase Dollars 2024

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Growth Along the Great River

Over the next five years, the Memphis market is expected to grow quicker than other cities.

iEmergent’s Mortgage Velocity Index (MVI) compares a market’s rate of growth in loans over the next five years against the growth rate of the overall U.S. market. An MVI of 1 means a market is growing on pace with national market growth. Memphis has an MVI of 1.26, meaning the city is growing slightly faster than the national average.

Memphis 2024 MVI

Diverse Lending: Know Where to Grow

Right now, the homeownership gap is stark for Black and Hispanic households in the Memphis market.

Homeownership Rates

  • Overall: 60.7%
  • Black: 45.8%
  • Hispanic: 49.4%
  • Asian: 65.3%

The minority homeownership rate is just 47.2%—more than 13 percentage points lower than the overall homeownership rate. 

It doesn’t have to stay that way. Lenders can use Mortgage MarketSmart to reach underserved borrowers by executing data-driven strategies to:

  • Inform new products 
  • Build special purpose credit programs (SPCPs)
  • Find relevant referral partners
  • Engage with community centers of influence
  • And more

There is good news for Memphis: loan dollars and units to diverse borrowers are expected to grow this year. Minority borrower segments—Black, Hispanic, and Asian—are forecasted to grow 16.5% to 23.3% from 2023 to 2025. The non-hispanic white segment is only forecast to grow 14.5% over that same time period, helping to narrow the gap.

Here’s the geographic breakdown of where loans to diverse borrowers are forecast. Can you spot the correlation with our census-tract level growth predictions above? 

Loan Dollars - Black Borrowers
Memphis Black Purchase Dollars 2024

Loan Dollars - Hispanic Borrowers
Memphis Hispanic Purchase Dollars 2024

Loan Dollars - Asian Borrowers
Memphis Asian Purchase Dollars 2024

FHA Lending in Memphis is blooming

Almost $100 million of the growth in the Memphis market between 2023 and 2025 is expected to come from FHA loans, which are forecast to increase from $615 million in 2023 to $711 million in 2025.

iEmergent Memphis FHA Opp

Put Data and Insights to Work

Imagine having this data (and more!) for your markets. What kind of strategies could you plan? How would your 2024 look different? 

Forward-looking data—combined with historic, current data, and innovating analysis tools—set lenders apart. Bernard is exhibiting and presenting a demo at Great River, and we would love to see exactly what Mortgage MarketSmart can do for you. If you want to grow in 2024, get on our calendar today.

Schedule a Demo


All maps and data in this blog are from iEmergent’s proprietary forecasts and Mortgage MarketSmart’s suite of market intelligence tools.

Generally accepted minimum accuracy standards for predictive analytics: 70%.

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