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As we move toward the end of this year, political turmoil – both domestic and international – has risen to remarkable levels, but the American economy keeps chugging along. Moreover, thanks to an interest rate decline that was faster than expected, we have a modest refinance boom and slightly stronger purchase volumes providing a welcome origination surge. Our preliminary 2020 forecast shows purchase conditions remaining positive, increasing 4.7% in 2019 and 5.6% in 2020. With the mini refi boom, refinances will spike up at least 43% this year before tapering off and declining by as much as 18% next year.
Here are the key economic factors influencing our outlook: