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The U.S. now leads the world in coronavirus cases, and there are no signs of it slowing down soon. As U.S. unemployment claims hit a record high and the world economy shifts in unprecedented ways, there will undoubtedly be a profound impact on housing and lending.

What does the future hold for the U.S. mortgage market in 2020? The year started with a positive economic outlook and record-low interest rates; the best combination of conditions possible for lenders to have a record-setting year. However, the sudden uncertainty and fear accompanying the COVID-19 epidemic is severely rattling financial markets and making a recession seem likely. Only time will tell.

Read about iEmergent's 2020 mortgage outlook, as Mark Watson summarizes the key indicators behind the numbers.

From mid-November to the end of March, the average rate on fixed-rate mortgages plummeted nearly 90 basis points (0.9%) to 4.06% and the MBA Refinance Application Index nearly doubled. Is this the start of a new refi boom? We don’t think so – at least, not quite yet.

Despite a decline in interest rates and changes in market application levels, iEmergent forecaster Mark Watson explains why he is not changing the forecast he released in November, which estimates total mortgage originations in 2019 to reach $1.61 Trillion.