Our market intelligence answers the question: What is your market opportunity?
Our approach to market intelligence is different. At the end of the day, what we do is help organizations prepare for a successful, sustainable future. By knowing what’s next in a market, lenders are able to anticipate change and capture opportunity—as efficiently as possible. Amid economic uncertainty, shifting homebuyer behavior, and regulatory changes, leaders need more than expertise and experience to maintain and improve performance. They need evidence.
Instead of using historic data from HMDA, current market share reports, or monthly home price indexes to make tactical decisions, iEmergent breaks new ground with data that forces lenders to think about where to go and how to get there.
At the core of our intelligence are purchase mortgage opportunity forecasts. Other market data providers focus on historical and current data, but we look ahead. Our data shows lenders how much opportunity to expect in each of their markets in the year ahead—and five years beyond.
Many research and analytics firms in the industry provide data points that are related to housing and lending, such as unemployment rates, interest rates, the various home price indexes, foreclosure counts, and housing inventory. Our forecast methodology aggregates and considers these and other data points, and further examines the relationship between them. The end result is a forecast of mortgage opportunity—specifically, how many loans and dollars will be originated.
The “one-size-fits-all” belief that national and regional-level forecasts adequately address the needs of professionals across roles, levels, and functions in the lending industry is wrong. Markets are responding to changing economic and regulatory conditions in very distinct ways.
We build our forecasts from the ground up, and we start with forecasts for all 72,000 census tracts across the nation. Because of this level of granularity, our forecasts are available at multiple levels of detail, including states, metro areas, counties, and communities. For lenders, this means our data is as relevant to high-level discussions on corporate strategy and direction as it is to market-specific tactical and strategic challenges. It also means that what we provide is valuable to large lenders with a national footprint and smaller originators with only a few branches.
Likewise, we offer forecasts for 25 different market segments, including forecasts by loan type, borrower income level, borrower ethnicity/race, non-conforming, and other special segments such as first-time homebuyer and new construction. With this breadth of data, our clients can quantify and compare what type of opportunity to expect in various markets. Most recently, our CRA and LMI forecasts have been particularly useful to our bank clients as they navigate new regulations and meet CRA guidelines.
It is important to note that our data is not property-specific. Instead, we focus on patterns of home lending behavior within markets. Data can be an incredibly powerful tool, but there are many scenarios where too much specificity clouds the overall strategic picture. With our multi-level offerings, our clients can easily apply data effectively and efficiently.
Our Forecasting Methodology
Look Inside Our Forecasts
Since beginning our complex mortgage forecasting in 2003, we have become the leader in mortgage industry forecasting.
From 2004 -2013, our national mortgage mean absolute forecasting accuracy was 89.7%. Other major forecasters were more than 20 percentage points less accurate than iEmergent over that time period.